For decades, the United States made steady, if uneven, progress in reducing deaths from chronic diseases — cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, and others that account for the majority of preventable deaths worldwide. But a sobering new Lancet study has revealed an alarming truth: that progress has stalled.

From 2010 to 2019, the U.S. saw the smallest decline in chronic disease mortality among high-income nations. Even more concerning, some age groups — particularly adults aged 20 to 45 — are now experiencing increases in mortality from conditions we once believed were under control.

This should be a wake-up call for our health system. We cannot assume yesterday’s tools will solve tomorrow’s problems. Tobacco control, statins, and blood pressure medications drove impressive gains in earlier decades, but their impact is now plateauing. The next leap forward will require us to think differently, to act boldly, and to fully embrace the potential of artificial intelligence and digital health technologies.

Why Progress Has Stalled

The stall is not surprising when we look closely at the challenges:

• Late diagnosis: Many chronic diseases are only caught when they’ve already caused significant damage.
• One-size-fits-all care: Standardized guidelines can’t capture the diversity of patient needs, risks, and environments.
• Gaps in adherence: Too many patients fall through the cracks, whether through missed appointments, medication lapses, or social barriers.
• Inequitable access: Geography, income, and race continue to dictate health outcomes in America.

Without new approaches, these forces will continue to blunt our progress.

The Role of AI and Digital Health

This is where technology can help us break through the ceiling. Consider the following opportunities:

1. Precision Prevention and Early Detection
   AI can analyze massive datasets — from genomics to wearable devices — to predict who is at risk before symptoms ever appear. Imagine being able to identify a 35-year-old at risk of diabetes years before traditional screening would catch it, and intervening early enough to prevent the disease entirely.
2. Personalized Care Pathways
   Digital platforms and AI decision-support tools can help clinicians tailor prevention and treatment strategies to each patient’s unique profile, making care more effective and relevant.
3. Scaling What Works
   Remote monitoring, digital therapeutics, and telemedicine can extend chronic disease management far beyond the clinic, reaching millions who might otherwise lack consistent access.
4. Closing Gaps and Advancing Equity
   AI can uncover hidden patterns in health disparities, allowing us to target interventions where they’re needed most — from rural communities to underserved urban neighborhoods.

Guardrails for a Smarter Future

Of course, technology alone is not a silver bullet. To ensure these solutions truly reduce chronic disease mortality, we must:

• Govern AI with transparency and ethics at the core.
• Prioritize equitable access, so digital health doesn’t deepen disparities.
• Invest in validation, implementation science, and real-world testing.
• Train our workforce to use these tools effectively and responsibly.

A Call to Action

The stalling of chronic disease mortality reduction is not just a statistic — it represents lives cut short, families burdened, and communities weakened. But it is also an opportunity to reset our approach.

If we embrace AI and digital health thoughtfully and boldly, we can not only restart progress, but accelerate it. We can move from managing disease to preventing it. From patching gaps to closing them. From incremental improvements to transformational change.

The Lancet study should not be read as a story of failure. It should be read as a call to innovate. The tools are in our hands. The question is whether we have the will to deploy them wisely, inclusively, and at scale.